© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A supporter holds the national flags of Japan during Emperor Naruhito’s public appearance for New Year’s Eve celebrations at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, Japan, January 2, 2020. REUTERS / Kim Kyung-Hoon
1 / WANTED: PRIME MINISTER
In the big contest to be the next prime minister of Japan, the hopefuls have until Friday to announce their intentions. For now, it’s a three-horse race: the frontrunner, COVID-19 vaccine minister Taro Kono, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida and former home minister Sanae Takaichi – the first woman to apply for the position.
Whoever wins the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race on September 29 becomes Prime Minister and will lead the party to the general election on November 28.
The departure of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has taken the stock average to a nearly six-month high and the index to its best close in three decades on bets that with a new leader will come another fiscal stimulus to fight against the pandemic.
– Japanese investors raise bets on Kono in leadership race – Japan stock market clearly wins out of Suga’s abrupt resignation –
2 / BUY ME
September saw the relentless flow of deals pick up again, with buyout companies and corporations focusing on acquisition targets and stock quotes.
Negotiators are looking to build on a record first eight months of 2021 and central banks apparently cautious about removing stimulus measures provide little reason to hold back. The United States and Asia saw M&A volumes hit a record high in the first eight months of the year at $ 2 trillion and $ 805.7 billion respectively. Europe is at a record high of $ 870 billion in 14 years.
With UK supermarket chain Morrisons set to acquire $ 10 billion and Easyjet reporting an unsolicited bid – potentially sparking more activity in these sectors – it will only intensify.
-US $ 10 billion battle for Britain’s Morrisons up for auction
3 / ARE WE STILL THERE?
Tuesday’s US consumer price data will fuel the debate over whether the current explosion in inflation is likely to fade as a handful of factors pushing prices up these days. last few months will eventually subside.
In July, price increases slowed but remained at a 13-year high on an annual basis amid tentative signs of inflation that have peaked as pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions creep through. path. Meanwhile, Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will provide insight into the health of the economic recovery.
While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has assured market policymakers will take a measured approach to reducing monthly bond purchases, concerns remain that rising inflation may continue to accelerate the market. pullback of loose money policies.
-ANALYSIS-Weak US jobs report in August casts doubt on Fed cut
-Five challenges the Fed chief could face in the next four years
4 / STAY CALM AND CONTINUE
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Warns Britain’s Economic Rebound Slows; upcoming data on jobs, inflation and retail sales will show if he’s right – and could provide crucial information ahead of the September 23 policy meeting.
Inflation in July, dismissed as a jolt, slowed to 2%. Retail sales fell 2.5% month over month, due to bad weather and football. Will Wednesday’s August data show a recovery?
Inflationary pressures remain high – July factory production costs rose 4.9% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 10 years. Input costs jumped nearly 10%.
Tuesday’s employment data is also the focus of attention, given labor shortages, a record 8.8% increase in average June wages and below-average unemployment. The end of leave schemes can push people into the workforce, but skills shortages risk fueling price pressures from supply bottlenecks and commodity prices.
5 / A FLYING MOUTH
Bond investors just can’t make up their minds.
Wait a minute, they’re deleveraging, confident that central banks will cut back on emergency stimulus soon. The next day, they buy bonds, hoping that the reduction will be modest.
For now, the latter view prevails after the European Central Bank cut emergency bond purchases, but stressed that this is not decreasing. The relief was palpable with Italian yields posting their biggest one-day decline since March.
Australia’s central bank also confirmed its intention to cut bond purchases, but extended its program until February. But wait: Judging from the trading of the past few weeks, a hawkish comment from a Fed or ECB member here, or a strong impression of data there, could soon turn the tide. Watch this speech from the central bank.
-The ECB cuts emergency support but insists on “no reduction”